MILITARYCONTRACT - Tropical Storm Ian

VP Special Events: Mark Richards. General Discussion about the AirSource Special Events Division.

MILITARYCONTRACT - Tropical Storm Ian

Postby AS455 - Don » 24 Sep 2022 17:36

WDSU Channel 6 Weather:
Tropical Storm Ian forecast to strengthen and make landfall in Florida
Ian is expected to become a major hurricane before Florida landfall Wednesday

NEW ORLEANS —
The WDSU weather team is closely watching several areas in the tropics, but the main area of interest for us is Tropical Storm Ian. The models have slowly been trending west, so we're watching this storm closely, and it's a good idea for you to check back in, too. As of now, though, we are not in the cone, and being on the west side of the storm will provide us nice weather! Let's get into the details of where this storm might be going.

Tropical Storm Ian is about 270 miles south-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica. It has winds of 45 mph and is moving west at 15 mph.

This system will likely pass Jamaica to the west and tropical storm conditions are possible there Sunday. It will then likely become a Category 1 hurricane Sunday night before crossing west of the Cayman Islands.

From there, it will continue to strengthen and could be a category 2 hurricane before making landfall in western Cuba Monday night or Tuesday morning.

It will then move into the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and encounter little shear. This means it will likely quickly strengthen and become a major category 3 hurricane before landfall in Florida. Right now, it looks like a Florida landfall will occur Wednesday or Thursday.

Most models agree that this system is heading for the Gulf coast of Florida. Most of the entire state of Florida is in the cone, minus far western areas of the panhandle like Pensacola and far south Florida like Miami. Remember, the center of the hurricane is forecast to make landfall anywhere within the cone, so the entire coast within the cone needs to be prepping for a possible landfall in their area.

It will then likely cross Florida, and it could stay a hurricane as it crosses over land. That means those inland and along the east coast in the cone need to prepare for hurricane or tropical storm conditions.

Why is the storm likely going east towards Florida and away from Louisiana? The global data is showing that an upper-level trough will 'dig' far enough south to push a strong fall cold front through the Southeastern U.S. That will combine with the winds flowing around a Bermuda High to push the storm north-northeast through the Eastern Gulf making landfall on the Gulf side of Florida.

There have been slows trends to the west over the past day. At this point, it's still a good idea to keep on checking in on the latest data and discussion here at wdsu.com and on our regular newscast throughout the day.

Besides that system, we're watching 3 other named storms and an area of possible development.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Fiona is lashing at Atlantic Canada right now, bringing hurricane-force winds, storm surge and heavy rain.

Tropical Storm Gaston is expected to become post-tropical today, and is currently bringing tropical storm conditions to portions of the Azores.

Tropical Storm Hermine will bring heavy rain to the Canary Islands this weekend.

A tropical wave west of the Cabo Verde Islands in the Central Tropical Atlantic has a low chance of development over the next five days.

C-130 Flight #1827:
MUGM (Guantanamo Bay, Cuba) - MWCR (Roberts Intl., Grand Cayman)

C-17 Flight #1828 Flight:
MUGM (Guantanamo Bay, Cuba) - MWCR (Roberts Intl., Grand Cayman)

Don Smith
ASO455

User avatar
AS455 - Don
Control Tower [Moderator]
 
Posts: 225
Joined: 07 Apr 2008 13:50
Location: [AirSource ID: AS 455]
AirSource Pilot Number: 455

Return to Special Events - Crew Pass

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests

cron