VP Special Events: Mark Richards. General Discussion about the AirSource Special Events Division.


Postby AS455 - Don » 25 Aug 2020 14:26

Here are several C-130 Flights into Hurricane Laura:
MUGT (Guantanamo Bay) – KBIX (Keesler AFB): Hurricane Hunter Mission C-130 into Hurricane Laura
KBIX (Keesler AFB) – KVPS (Elgin AFB): Hurricane Hunter Mission C-130 into Hurricane Laura
Hurricane Laura’s Position @14:13 GMT on 8/25/20: N22*58.17’ W85*47.25’ - Alt: 18520’

Hurricane Laura Intensifying in the Gulf of Mexico; Forecast to Strike Upper Texas, Louisiana Coasts as Category 3
By meteorologists
less than an hour ago
Hurricane Laura is intensifying over the Gulf of Mexico and is forecast to become a major hurricane prior to striking the upper Texas or southwest Louisiana coasts late Wednesday or early Thursday. Life-threatening storm surge and destructive winds will batter the coast and a threat of flooding rain and strong winds will extend well inland.
Residents along the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts should prepare now for a hurricane strike. Follow any evacuation orders issued by local or state officials.
Current Status
Laura became the fourth hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season Tuesday morning, based on measurements taken by NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft.
Laura has prompted hurricane and storm surge watches for the Gulf Coast. Hurricane warnings could be issued for parts of these areas later today.
A hurricane watch has been posted from San Luis Pass, Texas, to west of Morgan City, Louisiana, and also extends inland to include parts of the eastern Houston metro, Beaumont and Port Arthur, Texas, Lake Charles and Lafayette, Louisiana. This means tropical storm conditions (winds 40 mph or greater) are possible in these areas by Wednesday afternoon and hurricane conditions (winds greater than 74 mph) are possible by late Wednesday.
A storm surge watch has also been issued from San Luis Pass, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. This watch, meaning life-threatening inundation of water moving ashore over land is possible within the area in 48 hours or less. The watch includes Galveston Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas and Lake Borgne for areas outside of the southeast Louisiana Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System.
Tropical storm watches are in effect for areas surrounding the hurricane watch, including downtown Houston (No Map Shown).
Laura is centered more than 600 miles southeast of Lake Charles, Louisiana. It's tracking to the west-northwest at just over 15 mph.
Satellite imagery shows the storm is becoming increasingly organized as it moves into a favorable environment for strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico.
U.S. Hurricane Threat
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast shows Laura will continue to track west-northwest through early Wednesday before turning more to the northwest.
It's possible Laura could undergo a period of rapid intensification according to the NHC. That means it could have a wind speed increase of at least 35 mph in 24 hours.
(IN DEPTH: Why Laura Could Join List of Recent Gulf Hurricanes That Rapidly Intensified)
Laura is predicted to become a major hurricane - Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale - prior to making landfall somewhere along the southwest Louisiana or upper Texas coasts Wednesday night or early Thursday morning. Conditions are expected to deteriorate in these areas by Wednesday.
There may still be subtle, yet important changes to the track and intensity forecast over the next day or so.
For instance, any westward shift of the track could increase the threat of Laura's strongest winds, storm surge and rain in the Houston-Galveston metro area. As a result, residents in these areas should prepare for a potential hurricane strike.
"Users are again reminded to not focus on the exact details of the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at 72 hours is around 100 miles and the average intensity error is around 15 mph," the NHC said early Tuesday morning.
The bottom line is that Laura is likely to bring storm surge, rainfall and wind impacts to parts of Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coasts beginning Wednesday. Keep in mind that a hurricane isn't just a point. Impacts will extend far from where the center eventually moves inland.

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AS455 - Don
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